Black Friday is a big deal. Half of the 1,400 22seven users surveyed by Insights at the beginning of November indicated they were deliberately holding back purchases in the hope of a better price during a Black Friday promotion. A third of respondents knew what they wanted and were keeping an eye out for a better price, and another third were keeping financial powder dry for an irresistible deal.
Respondents spanned the income spectrum and were most likely to buy online. (See here for further details.) Respondents who were only planning to shop in-store were in the minority, which further highlights the significance of online/omni-channel options for most consumers. (The likelihood of respondents to an online survey being more digitally inclined is not lost on us, but the skew in the answer distribution to this question was still significant: only 10% of respondents across a wide range of incomes expected to only shop in-store.)
BankServ tells us that total spending through its network increased by 16.24% on Friday 25 November, compared to the year before. Since this is only a measure of spending on the day and does not include spending when the retailer’s point-of-sale and customer’s card issuer are the same, it’s not necessarily the most accurate reflection of retailer performance. What about spending on pre-Black Friday promotions, for example?
Yes, Black Friday is more than one day for retailers – it’s a month-long push for sales. Depending on the category, Black Friday festivities mean that spending during November accounts for 9-13% of total annual spend. (On average, a month should account for 8%.) November is even more significant for online retailers, where it counts for 12-13% of total annual spend by 22seven users. (Spending peaks for online retailers in November; December is the peak spending month for most other retailers.)
Considering that the whole of November is a crucial trading month for retailers, who won Black Friday this year? Which retailer outperformed its competitors, and which improved on its own previous performance?
To answer these questions, we contrasted user spending at a wide range of retailers from June to November, in 2020, 2021 and 2022. We therefore judged a retailer’s Black Friday performance in terms of the monthly change in spending over the six months leading up to November. Doing so reveals the trajectory of growth over the period.
The chart below shows the category-level results. Spending on furniture increased the most in November – as it has done in previous years – and by more than it increased in 2021. Grocery spending declined marginally in November this year compared to October. (Last year, spending increased in November compared to October.)
Spending on apparel and general merchandise increased in November 2022, but at a slightly slower rate than in 2021. Spending at major DIY retailers declined in November 2022 – a significantly weaker performance than the year before.
Category growth
So, if shoppers were mostly after homeware, apparel, and general goods on Black Friday (the latter category includes major electronics and online retailers like Takealot) at the expense of groceries and DIY products, which retailers outperformed and which underperformed?
The answers are in the charts below. Let’s begin with the grocers…
Grocery
The change in spending in November 2022 at the main grocery retailers was lower than in 2021. Spending at PnP increased at a faster rate in November 2022 compared to October, whereas the rate of growth declined at Checkers, Spar and Woolworths. Woolworths delivered the strongest cumulative trading performance over the past two months. Spar experienced the weakest growth in spending during November.
We note that sales growth dipped sharply for all grocery retailers in September 2022 when loadshedding intensified.
Apparel
We plot these over two charts with MRP on the left of both, to help calibrate performance between the two.
CottonOn, TFG and Superbalist outperformed this group of retailers during November, each with a similar shape of monthly growth in 2022 as in 2021. For the first time in three years, spending at MRP declined in November compared to October. Given the size of MRP, this suggests that it underperformed in November and over Black Friday.
Albeit at a lower absolute rate of change, the data suggests that Truworths performed well in November 2022 compared to its own history, with spending increasing at the highest rate in November 2022 compared to the two years before.
Spending at Retailability – mostly Edgars – increased for two consecutive months, whereas spending at H&M slowed. Zara appears to have had a challenging six months after a strong start to the year.
The data suggests that spending at Pep & Ackermans did not increase meaningfully in November in prior years, and this trend continued in 2022.
General Merchandise
This category includes many products that are sought after in Black Friday promotions, like home appliances and electronics. Among the retailers we track, spending at Incredible Connection increased the most in November, and at a faster rate than in 2021. We note a much weaker October 2022 than October 2021, however, which may dilute November’s performance.
As to be expected, spending at Takealot increased sharply in November and at a similar rate and trajectory of monthly growth as in previous years.
We include OneDayOnly in this group, too, because November accounts for its highest proportion of total spending than any other retailer included in this analysis: c14%. It had a much stronger performance in November than in previous years.
Spending at Makro increased in November, but not to the same degree as in previous years.
Furniture
The furniture segment delivered strong growth in spending in November and a better 2022 result than in 2021. Insights data shows that @home delivered the strongest growth in November and better performance than in 2022. Tapestry Brands followed close behind, suggesting a good overall performance for TFG’s furniture business.
JD Group brands – mostly Rochester, Russells and Bradlows – performed well but at a slower pace in November than in previous years.
Spending at MRP Home stores performed better than at MRP brand stores.
And the winner is…
This analysis has evaluated retailers’ Black Friday performance based on the month-on-month change in spending in November – compared to competitors’ growth and compared to 2021 and 2020 growth for the retailer in question.
Overall, it seems that Black Friday triggers the highest increase in spending in the Apparel, Furniture and General Merchandise sectors. That said, monthly growth in spending in November 2022 was lower for all categories than in 2021, with spending declining among grocery and DIY retailers.
Of the major listed retailers analysed, the data indicates that PnP, Woolworths, TFG and Truworths outperformed in November 2022.
